Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-28 21.996080 23.932635 26.029267 28.479645 31.279924 34.398300 38.158922
2025-10-05 18.940887 21.573290 24.624886 28.469936 33.252816 39.100203 46.942050
2025-10-12 16.871015 19.900133 23.604003 28.565385 35.198901 44.017149 57.104905
2025-10-19 15.458894 18.761520 22.982121 28.939841 37.434586 49.645070 69.681726
2025-10-26 14.179605 17.596818 22.119482 28.782437 38.812542 54.256496 82.082625
2025-11-02 13.111729 16.572320 21.287609 28.491589 39.863733 58.503180 95.232291
2025-11-09 12.299534 15.801206 20.698879 28.435304 41.206571 63.453786 111.512152
2025-11-16 11.566615 15.065999 20.070959 28.209474 42.190227 67.947671 128.768143
2025-11-23 10.926976 14.406033 19.481043 27.951160 43.042782 72.359388 147.989151
2025-11-30 10.367666 13.817166 18.939152 27.693273 43.830330 76.809842 169.821779
2025-12-07 9.906771 13.338924 18.522194 27.587087 44.866470 82.045566 197.375409
2025-12-14 9.455220 12.843035 18.034448 27.297267 45.486440 86.501903 225.911598
2025-12-21 9.302730 12.801295 18.280366 28.357682 49.077299 99.439374 299.679848
2025-12-28 8.911762 12.363272 17.843099 28.118741 49.888222 105.547724 353.592538
2026-01-04 8.595469 12.024149 17.545009 28.108521 51.209607 113.626821 431.497615
2026-01-11 8.360965 11.801074 17.425268 28.426261 53.349148 125.103292 556.888034
2026-01-18 8.064667 11.460378 17.076855 28.251247 54.279408 133.175169 683.527228
2026-01-25 7.772759 11.111400 16.690185 27.958445 54.869477 140.422338 832.743581
2026-02-01 7.537198 10.843590 16.429633 27.899282 56.056891 150.544215 1070.290311
2026-02-08 7.294569 10.551928 16.107394 27.677618 56.778613 159.321548 1360.254157
2026-02-15 7.063863 10.269674 15.785204 27.425444 57.379627 168.047373 1749.784141
2026-02-22 6.847997 10.003091 15.476388 27.174160 57.947393 177.095802 2301.271240
2026-03-01 6.664677 9.784274 15.243729 27.070669 58.936715 188.932684 3262.130433